Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Is this a time to rethink our Progressive Tax System?

I wrote this essay as a final paper for English 104 class in 2009.

In this essay I want address a belief amongst many Americans that progressive tax system is unfair for high earners and corporations. It has also been argued that progressive tax is a net detractor from economic growth. Words like socialism and Marxism have made a comeback in the media due in no small part to emergence of the new national hero - "Joe the Plumber." Joe has secured his place in history when he stood up to "tax and spend" and "income redistribution" ideas of Barack Obama by confronting him in a televised moment on the campaign trail. Simply put Joe claimed that small business owners will fire people and reduce investment if new administration chooses to dial back lofty tax breaks introduces during Clinton and George W. Bush administrations. While some might dismiss him as an aberration, and a tool of the conservatives, I have personally witnessed many members of the lower and middle middle-class accepting and sharing his views that business and high earners must pay less in taxes than they pay themselves. Logic and philosophy of progressive tax system deserves further exploration because many members of the middle class, who suffer from loopholes in our current tax policy that allows rich to pay as little as 15% in taxes, readily join "Joe the plumber" in condemning progressive tax system. Common earners' strong support of Joe's ideas should make any proponent of the Progressive Tax system to pause and question his or her beliefs.

The best way to facilitate a discussion of the progressive tax system would be to address two main topics: supply side economics and general fairness or unfairness of the progressive tax system.

Supply side economics is a school of thought that promotes a theory that the best economic growth occurs when suppliers are given incentives in the form of cuts to income and capital gains taxes. Supply-siders consider suppliers and high income earners to be the driving force of the economy, hence leaving greater amount of money in their pockets would encourage various forms of spending which would stimulate the economy.

While the crux of the theory was formed by two economist friends on the back of a napkin, full understanding of the theory requires serious academic undertaking. Fortunately, Arthur B. Laffer, one of the scholars who formulated the theory has published an article "The Laffer Curve: Past, Present, and Future." In this article published in 2004 at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, he explains the inner workings of the theory in layman's terms as follows:

The basic idea behind the relationship between tax rates and tax revenues is that changes in tax rates have two effects on revenues: the arithmetic effect and the economic effect. The arithmetic effect is simply that if tax rates are lowered, tax revenues (per dollar of tax base) will be lowered by the amount of the decrease in the rate. The reverse is true for an increase in tax rates. The economic effect, however, recognizes the positive impact that lower tax rates have on work, output, and employment--and thereby the tax base--by providing incentives to increase these activities. Raising tax rates has the opposite economic effect by penalizing participation in the taxed activities. The arithmetic effect always works in the opposite direction from the economic effect. Therefore, when the economic and the arithmetic effects of tax-rate changes are combined, the consequences of the change in tax rates on total tax revenues are no longer quite so obvious (Laffer).

What this basically says is that government net tax receipts will rise despite lowered tax rate due to stimulative effect that tax cuts have on investment and economy as a whole.


 

An opposing strategy applied in all civilized countries including United States advocates for a Progressive Tax system, which increases effective tax rates as incomes rise. Current U.S. tax system however provides high earners with ways to tame and elude the progressive nature our tax code by giving them great latitude in how to recognize profit and income. The loopholes are so effective that some billionaires get away with paying as little as 15% effective tax rate on their income. The issue of inequality in taxation has been brought to the forefront in the recent US Presidential race. Barack Obama, a winning candidate in the US presidential elections of 2008, has been labeled a socialist and "tax and spend" democrat for promoting a more progressive tax plan that would lessen the spread in taxes paid by the rich and the middle class.

Rich Karlgaarld, an editor of Forbes magazine wrote the following passage that illustrates the classical supply-side argument: "The most effective tax cuts are those that encourage investment and production--the supply side of the economy. These tax cuts would be on individual and corporate income, capital gains and dividends. Such cuts would lift spirits immediately and the economy soon after" (Karlgaarld 37). Karlgaarld proceeds to quote his boss Steve Forbes as saying "Reduce taxes on production and you get more production. More production means that more goods and services must compete for your dollars. That's how prices go down, not up. This is not hard to figure out! It is simple supply and demand. If you want prices to go down, increase supply. Incentivize the suppliers" (37). While it is true that tax incentives to producers contribute somewhat to the amount of production and investment into business, it does not necessarily follow that this is the most effective policy for sustained economic growth. John Kenneth Galbraith, a respected economist writes that "The poor and those of average income spend reliably from that they earn; the rich do not. Thus, progressive taxation has a stabilizing role in helping ensure that what is received as income is returned to the market as demand for good produced" (Galbraith 30). What follows is that making our tax system more progressive will encourage spending and demand. Galbraith also discredits attempts to increase after-tax income of the rich in order to encourage economically productive effort as "carrying the case the case too far" (30).

I agree wholeheartedly with Galbraith's arguments and also want to make a case that nothing encourages production and investment into business as robust demand. You don't have to incentivize Apple to produce iPods or iPhones. Toyota can manage to produce popular and quality vehicles without relying on handouts from American taxpayers. Gifting tax gifts to businesses to encourage growth is a form of reverse Darwinism that is a bad investment for our government. It unnecessarily increases incomes at the top of the corporate structures at the expense of government tax receipts.

Our businesses would be in a very bad shape if tax gifts would be sole source for economic growth and investment. Fortunately, we have a great and flexible financial products market. Businesses can obtain financing for expansion as long as they can prove, by conducting a prudent analysis of the opportunity, that it will be beneficial to their bottom line. Expansion for the sake of expansion does not result in sustainable growth and is actually something that can result in demise and destruction of a company. One needs to look no further than United Airlines, Ford, Kmart, Circuit City, to see how expansion in core business or via acquisition can bring a company to a bankruptcy.

Discussion of the tax policy towards business can be a civilized academic exercise, but nothing can match the heat and excitement when conversation turns to personal income taxation. Galbraith writes that "it is held that there is a moral entitlement: the man or woman in question has the right to receive what he or she earns or, more precisely, what he or she receives. This can be asserted with emphasis, on occasion with asperity and often with righteous indignation" (Galbraith 61). But how do you counter such assertion? Doesn't person have a right to hold tight to all of his/her earnings? Why does it matter what their income level is? The idea of entitlement to our compensations and view of taxation as an evil force is very hard to counter. However, Galbraith brilliantly explains that "Much income and wealth comes with slight or no social justification, little or no economic service on the part of the recipient. Inheritance is an obvious case. So also the endowments, accidents and perversions of the financial world" (61). A good modern day example of Galbraith's perversions can be seen in recent headlines when Lehman's CEO made out with millions in bonuses and options over his years of service that led to demise of the company. Freddy Mac, WaMu, and many other companies were led by executives that received astronomical compensation while being accomplices to policies that nearly destroyed American economy. Wall Street Journal article claims that "Freddie Mac's departing chief, Richard Syron, could walk away with an exit package totaling as much as $14.9" (Scannell A.21). At the same time many dedicated teachers, social workers, and regular working Americans are having hard time making the ends meet. These are the perversions and accidents of the economy that are unacceptable to a reasonable person. While higher taxation of executives would not help prevent the current economic crisis, it should cool any argument based on great utility of these minds to the overall economic growth.

Galbraith quotes Federal Reserve with the following statistics as of 1989: top 1% of American households owned nearly 40% of the nation's wealth in 1989, the top 20% more than 80%. The lowest-earning 20% of Americans had 5.7% of all after tax income. Despite the great economic growth experienced in the fifteen years that passed since, the divide has not changed. Article in 2004 Business Week states that "The top 1% of households owns nearly 40% of total household wealth -- more than the bottom 90% of households combined -- and earns half of all capital income. Income and wealth are more unevenly distributed among Americans than at any time since the Jazz Age of the 1920s. On measures of income and wealth inequality, the U.S. tops the charts among the advanced industrial nations" (Tyson 32). We can not continue the business as usual rewarding very few at the top, while increasing our national deficit to a double digit trillion amount, with a big portion of the borrowing coming from Social Security and Medicaid trusts.

A key to America's economic recovery is resurgence of demand for goods and services. This demand must be broad-based and sustainable. An effective progressive tax system is an important component in ensuring broad-based stimulative participation in economy by most citizens. While simplicity of Joe's (the Plumber) approach to taxation is appealing, we must be careful to not put the interests of the few over sustainability of the whole financial system.

Bibliography

Galbraith, John Kenneth. The Good Society - The Humane Agenda. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1996.

Karlgaarld, Rich. "Stagflation's Supply-Side Cure." Forbes 181.6 24 March 2008: 37.

Laffer, Arthur B. The Laffer Curve: Past, Present, and Future. 1 June 2004. 2 November 2008 <http://www.heritage.org/research/taxes/bg1765.cfm>.

Scannell, Kara and Dvorak, Phred. "The Fannie/Freddie Takeover: Pay Packages for CEOs Likely to Spur Scrutiny." Wall Street Journal [New York, N.Y.] 9 September 2008: A.21.

Tyson, Laura D'Andrea. "How Bush Widened The Wealth Gap." Business Week November 2004: 32.

7 comments:

  1. So Galbraith says that spending is good and we need to "encourage spending and demand". So, let's say everybody, including "the rich" would spend all their income? Would it advance us to everlasting prosperity and communism? Well, strike out communism, Galbraith doesn't want to go that far yet. There is a very important component missing from his economic model - Capital. If we all spend all our money, there would be no money left for savings. Next time someone wants to expand business or start a new one or improve productivity by byuing new machines, there will be no money for that. Society that consumes the whole income does not advance, it only declines, because even the current equipment depreciates and cannot be replaced.
    So some income should be directed into savings to become a capital for expansion and productivity growth.
    Another important question is, what is primary, consumption or capital? Is society prosperous and grows capital because of consumption or consumption depends on capital and grows because capital grows?
    If you believe Galbraith, growing consumption will cause the end of the current depression. Not true. It's the other way around: the end of depression will cause consumption growth.
    The space and time is too short here to explain in detail, but the current economic crisis and many others were brought by wrong monetary policy. Money supply was inflated and then because of that some money were malinvested. It was reflected in closed factories, laid off workers and falling stock market. Since "the poor" have very little flexibility manipulating their money, they usually loose the "beat the inflation" game. This recession will end when the general public (mostly "the rich") will feel that their capital is replenished after the losses and it is safe to invest again. Then current businesses will start expending, new businesses will open, hiring will begin and only then "the poor" will feel that the recession is over.
    If you truly want to help "the poor", live "the rich" alone and let them enrich themselves by investing their capital, thus giving jobs to "the poor" and pulling this economy out of the recession.
    I would suggest another idea. I'm sure it is so obvious, it is not new. Don't include it in your English paper, unless you are graduating from Atilla The Hun college. Since this society loves to tax bad behavior i.e. tobacco, sugar, alcohol, fat food, gasoline, etc. why not to introduce the regressive tax? To be poor is definitely not good for our society. The rest of the society is carrying the burden of supporting "the poor" and subsidizing their activities. Why not to introduce "the poor" tax to discourage this? This way we will end poverty and gain some money for our depleted treasury for Obama's pet projects.

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  2. This is a great argument against a point that nobody is making "If we all spend all our money". You are a Дон-ки-Хот of arguments fighting against non-existent hypothesis.

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  3. I was trying to explain why increase in spending and demand does not bring the desired result. Apparently Galbraith is (was) not satisfied with the current (1996, not 2009) level of consumption. If 100% is too much, then how much is enough? Galbraith loves to measure our economy by using GDP. Consumption + government spending (this is what you tax "the rich" for - to spend the money for them) is over 75%-80% of GDP. I don't know the exact numbers, but it should be in that range. The rest is investments and trade deficit.
    My point is that encouraging consumption without building a substantial economic base for it, will bring reduction of capital and more poverty and recessions.

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  4. Consumption is not the end goal. Rotation of money in the economy is. The basic point is as follows: if someone has 10 million dollars giving them an extra 200k in tax breaks will not change their spending, investment, business starting incentive, drive to make more money, etc.. Ronal Reagan as an actor was taxed at 80% in post war years, w-out loosing the drive to work more as an actor. So if due to tax policy someone like me ends up with an extra grand or two, it is unlikely that I will alter my spending in any meaningful way. If someone with income of 50K gets an extra grand they will throw it back into economy, spend it on spas, cars. Stimulus passed during Bush time, to prop up the low earners and lower middle class excluded top few percent of earners for that reason.
    As far as economic base, good idea in good hands will find funding regardless of the marginal tax rate.
    As far as "irresponsible spending", that was the presciption out of great depression. It is too late to cry for people on fixed incomes, - they are screwed because inflation is coming in a big way. Our system was messed up and 500B surplus of Clinton years is all but forgotten and blown on tax breaks. Coupled with irresponsible spending on wars, inflation is all but inevitable. But it (inflation) will be a big reset button for the whole economy, to pull it out of recession quicker. Nothing scares big $$ into investment as prospects of inflation. Run on equities is coming so stash your $$ into stocks of good fundamentals and strap in for the ride.

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  5. 1. Rotation of money is not an end goal. If you don't grow capital, you can rotate yourself into poverty pretty fast. A good example is Europe after WWI.
    2. If you have a competitive business or businessmen, operating at $10M/year profit on a $100M capital giving 10% profit is one thing, on 1000M capital giving 1% profit is another. Sensible people would close such a business and invest elsewhere. $200K may mean hiring 2 more people, giving people a raise or a bonus.
    3. How many movies did Reagan participate in? Was he busy 8 hrs/5 days a week? If you are employing people, say you are a consulting company. You have 2 offices and you have several software projects to run. You are the owner and you have to be in control and you are busy supervising those projects. If you are robbed of 80% of your income, you may and you probably will (and history proves is since ancient Rome) reduce your workload and will close your second office, fire people to cut expenses. This would cause the unemployment rate to rise and cost of living to go down. You'll still be relatively reach making 50% less, but having 50% more free time. Repeat of 30s great depression. Then wait for WWIII to end that one. The 50s-60s prosperity was caused by the fact that US was manufacturing for the rest of the world and the money was so much inflated, that in 70s US had to get off the gold standard.
    4. If you end up with extra money that you don't spend, you put it in the bank. Bank invests it, if you don't. If you and other people have less money left, bank invests less, thus making productivity and prosperity growth harder. You want to keep poor people poor and unemployed? Spend the capital. This may make rich less rich, but poor will definitely be more poor even if the difference between rich and poor will become less.

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  6. 5. Stimulus in terms of spending money during recession is economy killer. It only prolongs recession. As in any other case you have to fix the cause, not the effect. Giving stimulus money is running after effect and making things worse by using money needed for recovery and crowding out would be investors from starting up the economy again. It was a bad idea when Bush did it and it is even more bad now because of the enormous size of waste. You'll see that unemployment will not be down to 8% for at least 2-3 years. To get unemployment back to 5% would require inflating the economy until real wages go back 15-20 years.
    6. Good idea in good hands will not always find funding exactly because of marginal rates. Some ideas are profitable 100% a year on investment, some 10%. That means that only the very best ideas will prosper and many other opportunities will not be realized. What I'm saying is not a rocket science. Any economist that says opposite is ignorant or has ulterior motives. I'm only repeating 100 year old stuff.
    7. Spending did not bring US out of great depression. The war did. All unemployed were simply drafted into the US Army and then some. Women were left to work machines. When soldiers came back there was a very strong recession in 46-47. Truman had to unwind some of Roosevelt's programs to start economy back.
    8. Bush did not cut taxes 500B/year and there was never a surplus. Clinton heavily borrowed money from Social Security fund and used short-term borrowing for lower interest rates. When economy tanked because of all this inflating at the end of his term and cause Gore to loose the election all the surpluses disappeared even before Bush did his tax cuts. Check the data. If any private company would do accounting like the government does, all the management would go to jail for longer that Madoff.
    9. You see the run into equities right now did not produce any results in economy. And it will not produce any. Inflation makes most people poor except the "evil bankers" and some well connected rich. I can explain why when we meet. It wold take too long here.
    10. Inflation temporarily helps to propel economy by reducing the real wages and making it profitable again to hire people. So basically what you are saying is that Obama and co. want to make workers and fixed income people even more poor just to achieve his goals. What goals?
    11. You have to be really careful with equities. Right now most of the new money is still sitting idle in banks. As soon as banks start lending, watch out for bubbles like we had the internet bubble and then real estate bubble.
    I would invest in Australia and Brazil for now.

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  7. 1. Rotation and "recycling" of $$ in economy through lending and investing (non stock market) is a cornerstone of growth per widely accepted classical model.
    2. Businessmen don't hire someone because they have another 200K to spend, they hire someone because of marginal utility of newly added person. I would pocket the extra cash, thank you very much.
    3. I have no clue about Reagan's daily workload.
    4. See #1.
    5. Many economists, even in backward supply-side Chicago school, say that stimulus was very effective.
    6. People start new ventures and take out loans still, have been in higher taxes times (70s, 80s) as well. Current taxes are lower than then.
    7. I am not talking about war-time recession, but great depression.
    8. I remember vigorous debate about what to do with the 500B. Greenspan was saying lets pay down the debt, Bush said lets give tax cuts.
    9. This was a personal advice.
    10. Inflation scares capital into action.
    11. You are saying that there is a lot of money sitting on sidelines. That is actually a great time to be in equities before money gets into action, so bubble has not even started forming.

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